The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady today at 2.25%. That means the cycle of rate cuts or hikes is on pause for now. It gives buyers, sellers, and homeowners a little breathing room to plan ahead.

Why the hold?

The Bank noted persistent uncertainty around global trade and rising tariffs, which continue to weigh on business investment and exports. At the same time, inflation and domestic demand are behaving in a way that makes the current rate about right. Inflation is near target, and the economy appears more resilient than many expected.

What this means for mortgages

Variable rate mortgages remain tied to prime. With the overnight rate at 2.25%, variable rate borrowers should not see big surprises, although lenders may become more cautious in future pricing.
Fixed rate mortgage costs depend more on bond yields. Recent shifts in bond markets mean fixed rates may trend upward even if the overnight rate holds steady.

If you are renewing a five year fixed mortgage or locking in a new one, it may be a good time to compare lenders and secure a rate, especially if you expect rates to drift higher later in the year.

What it means for buyers

For prospective buyers in Greater Victoria, this period of rate stability offers a window of predictability.
You can budget with more confidence, even if rates do not fall dramatically.
It is a chance to focus on finding the right home, neighbourhood, and financing plan, rather than rushing due to rate anxiety.
With the broader market showing signs of balance, you may have more choice and more time to weigh options.

What it means for sellers

For sellers, the picture remains steady but cautious.
With rates stable, buyers will not face sudden jumps in financing costs.
If fixed rate yields continue to rise, housing costs could inch upward and weigh on demand.
Clean presentation, realistic pricing, and thoughtful marketing will continue to matter. Homes that are well positioned and competitively priced will perform best.

My take as your local Realtor

This rate hold feels more like a pause button than a reset. The Bank of Canada is threading a narrow path. It is managing inflation while trying not to stifle growth during global trade uncertainty. From where I sit, that leads to a market that feels balanced rather than overheated. A steady lane, not a fast lane.

If you are thinking about buying, selling, or renewing a mortgage in 2026, now is a good time to look at your options with some clarity. I am always glad to walk you through how this announcement may shape your plans.

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November’s numbers from the Victoria Real Estate Board confirmed what most of us have been sensing. The market has shifted into a slower, more balanced gear.

Sales have cooled, not crashed

VREB reported 451 sales in November. That is about 18% fewer than last year and roughly 27% below October. Condos felt the slowdown most sharply, with 119 sales, close to a one third drop year over year. Single family homes were down about 8%, with 241 sales across the region.

In plain language, buyers have choices again. The urgent, offer tonight or lose it energy of the early 2020s has largely faded.

Inventory is up and buyers can breathe again

We ended November with 3,152 active listings. That is almost 8% fewer than October, but 11% more than a year ago. More inventory than last year, paired with fewer sales this month, is classic balanced market territory. Well priced and well presented homes are still selling, but both sides have more time to think and negotiate.

Prices. Detached easing, condos edging up

Using the MLS Home Price Index:

The benchmark single family home in the Victoria Core sat at $1,276,700. That is down about 2.8% from last November and slightly below October.
The benchmark condo in the Victoria Core reached $553,100. That is roughly 2% higher than a year ago and modestly up from October.

Detached prices have eased from their peak. Condos are proving more resilient, shaped by affordability pressures and steady demand from first time buyers and downsizers.

How this lines up with the 2026 outlook

National and provincial forecasts point in a similar direction.

• CMHC expects a gradual recovery in 2026 as conditions stabilize and rates moderate.

• CREA based forecasts point to a small price decline through 2025 and a modest national increase of about 3% in 2026.

• BC focused outlooks call for softer sales in 2025 and an upswing in 2026 as buyers adjust to today’s interest rate environment.

For Greater Victoria, this likely means balanced conditions rather than a runaway seller’s market. Prices that move sideways to slightly higher. Strength in pockets where supply is tight. Ongoing affordability pressure, especially for younger buyers.

If you are buying in 2026

Buyers will find more inventory than we have seen in years. Less competition. More time for due diligence. You can focus on fit. Neighbourhood, layout, long term needs. The trade off is that rates remain higher than in the 2015 to 2020 era, so careful budgeting matters.

If you are selling in 2026

The bar is simply higher. Buyers have options, so pricing must be strategic, not nostalgic. Clean presentation and thoughtful prep still make a measurable difference. Realistic expectations matter. The goal is to be one of the next homes to sell, not another listing sitting in the queue. Well positioned homes continue to achieve solid prices. The any condition, any price days are behind us for now.

My take from the ground

This patient but active market is healthier for everyone. Buyers can think clearly. Sellers who prepare are rewarded. The gap between list price and true value is narrowing. If you are wondering whether to upsize, downsize, or shift within Greater Victoria in 2026, the answer is rarely a simple yes or no. It comes down to timing, product, and financing.

Let’s talk about your 2026 move

If you’d like a data driven look at what your current home could realistically sell for in this market, or which neighbourhoods fit your budget and lifestyle for a 2026 purchase, reach out any time. I am happy to walk you through the numbers, not just the headlines.

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