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BC Budget 2026 and Housing: Victoria Doesn't Need More Theories, It Needs More Homes

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 17:33:43 GMT

Housing is a chain of costs and constraints. Put stress on one link and it shows up somewhere else, usually on the people least able to absorb it. This week's budget applies pressure to several links at once, then uses the word affordability with a straight face.

Land holding costs, professional services, the capital that gets projects off the ground. The market has a simpler name for all of it: higher costs, more friction, fewer shovels.

And yet here we are, doing it again. The problem isn't complicated. We just keep misreading it and reaching for solutions that make it worse. Housing affordability isn't a greed problem or a speculation problem. It never was. The correct diagnosis is just less satisfying politically, so we keep avoiding it. It's a production problem. We are not building enough homes. Everything else is a footnote.

When demand rises and supply can respond, prices stabilize. When demand rises and supply can't respond, prices rise and stay there. That's not ideology. It's the first week of any economics course. High-demand cities stay expensive when building is slow, uncertain, and costly. Add more barriers and you get more expensive scarcity. It really is that straightforward, and that's what makes this budget so frustrating.

Victoria is the textbook case. We're land-constrained. Timelines are long. Trades are expensive. Financing is cautious. Permitting is slow. Neighbourhood politics are real. In this environment, raising costs before a shovel hits dirt isn't a revenue strategy. It's a project killer. A dead project pays nothing and houses nobody.

Developers aren't sitting on infinite margins. Projects get approved on spreadsheets, not optimism. The burden doesn't stay where you put it. It moves through the chain until it reaches whoever has the least ability to push back, and in housing, that's almost always the end buyer or the renter trying to find a unit that doesn't exist yet. Taxing the inputs is a strange strategy when affordability is your stated goal.

The new professional services taxes matter more than people think. Architects, engineers, consultants, project managers. Those are costs paid up front, when risk is highest and financing is tightest. Tax those inputs and you're not clawing back profit from a completed home. You're making it harder to start one.

The province can't have it both ways. You can't raise the cost of housing production at every turn and talk about affordability out of the other side of your mouth. At some point that stops being a policy tension and becomes a credibility problem.

You can't tax your way to housing affordability. Every time we raise the cost of building, we're not teaching the industry a lesson. We're pricing out the next buyer, the one who doesn't know yet that the home they needed was never built.

Projects that don't start in 2026 don't complete in 2028. BC doesn't need another speech about taking action. It needs units.

Victoria Real Estate January 2026: More Choice, Less Guesswork

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 00:02:44 GMT

Does January feel like a buyer’s market, a balanced market, or something in between, and what should I do differently because of it?

The headline in plain language

January looked a lot like the last couple of winters for sales pace. The difference this year is inventory.

339 properties sold across the VREB region in January.
2,624 active listings were on the market at month-end.

When you combine fewer sales with more listings, the market doesn’t “crash”. It usually does something far more boring and far more useful:

It gives buyers more selection and gives sellers more predictable outcomes.

The Victoria Real Estate Board spoke of January as on the threshold between balanced and a buyer’s market, with the important reminder that Greater Victoria is really a collection of micro-markets. Some areas already feel balanced, others lean more buyer-ish.

Sales cooled, inventory rose

Compared to January of last year, sales were down, and that showed up most in condos and single family homes.

Single family homes: 153 sales
Condos: 109 sales
Townhomes: 53 sales

If you’ve been house-hunting lately, this probably feels familiar. Buyers are still out there, but the urgency has been lower for a while now. What’s different this year is the tone. It feels like we’re moving toward a more steady market, where people can take a breath, run the numbers, and make decisions with a bit more confidence instead of guessing what next week will bring.

On the inventory side, we saw more listings available than a year ago and also a bump from December. That matters because inventory is the closest thing we have to oxygen in a market. When buyers have real choice, the market stops behaving erratically. Pricing gets tested more honestly, and outcomes become more measured and predictable.

What happened to prices in the Victoria Core

I lean on the MLS Home Price Index for market commentary because it’s less jumpy than averages and medians.

In the Victoria Core, January benchmarks were $1,265,500 (single family), $537,800 (condo), and $833,100 (townhome). Compared to December and a year ago, detached ticked up month-over-month but is still down year-over-year, while condos are down on both comparisons..

That is not a contradiction. It’s a market trying to find a rhythm. Detached can firm up a bit month-to-month if the right homes sell. Condos can soften if buyers get more choice, or if monthly carrying costs start to matter more again.

A quick way to see why January felt calmer

There are two simple questions that explain a lot of what buyers and sellers are feeling right now:

How many new listings showed up this month?
How many of those listings actually sold?

When you look at those side by side, you can usually tell whether the market is tightening up or loosening.

New listings vs. sales (Entire VREB District): New listing supply has been outpacing the sales count, which helps explain why buyers are feeling more choice and a calmer pace.
Source: Victoria Real Estate Board, January 2026 Statistics Package (released Feb 1, 2026).

That first chart is the “flow” view. New listings are the fresh supply coming in. Sales are demand actually being expressed. In January, we saw a decent amount of new inventory compared to the sales pace. That combination is what creates breathing room.

The second chart turns that relationship into a single, easy measure: the sales-to-active listings ratio. Think of it as a quick read on market pressure.

Sales-to-active listings ratio: A simple “market pressure” gauge. Lower ratios usually mean buyers have more leverage; higher ratios usually mean sellers do.
Source: Victoria Real Estate Board, January 2026 Statistics Package (released Feb 1, 2026). Interpretation thresholds referenced from BCREA methodology as noted in the VREB package.

BCREA’s interpretation (which VREB references in the stats package) uses these guideposts for Greater Victoria:

Below 17%: tends to lean buyer, with more downward pressure on prices
17% to 28%: generally balanced, with less pressure either way
Above 28%: tends to lean seller, with more upward pressure on prices

Right now we’re sitting close to that balanced-to-buyer edge. That lines up with what I’m seeing on the ground. Buyers have more choice, there’s less urgency, and negotiations feel more measured. Not slow, just more steady.

A quick story from the ground

Over the past year, a lot of buyers have felt stuck in that awkward middle zone. They liked homes. They could afford them. But they kept waiting for the world to calm down first. Rates, headlines, the general sense that something might break. So they toured, asked good questions, and then… paused. Not because they were unserious. More because they were trying to buy certainty, and certainty hasn’t really been for sale.

What’s felt different in late December and January is that some of that hesitation seems to be wearing off.

I’m seeing it first-hand on a new construction project I’m selling. For months we had steady traffic and good feedback. People genuinely liked the homes. The conversations were warm. A bunch of them asked to be kept in the loop if “anything changed” or if we saw serious buyer activity. The interest was real, but the offers weren’t showing up. It was classic tire-kicking with a rational explanation behind it.

Then, a switch seemed to flip. Several units sold in a relatively short window. Not in a frenzy, and not with that old “offer night panic” energy. More like: okay, we’ve waited long enough, we’re ready to get on with living. Buyers still did their homework, but they stopped waiting for perfect conditions and started making decisions inside the conditions we actually have.

Maybe it’s an anomaly. Maybe it’s the first hint of a broader shift as 2026 gets moving. Either way, this is where the sales-to-active listings ratio is worth watching. If sales start keeping up with inventory more consistently, that’s usually the earliest sign that the “fence-sitting” phase is fading and the market is finding a more steady rhythm.

What this means if you’re buying

If you’re buying in early 2026, this market can be a gift if you use it properly.

You gain:

More selection
More time for due diligence
Room to negotiate on price, dates, and terms (depending on the micro-market)

You give up:

The illusion that waiting automatically guarantees a better deal
The ability to hesitate forever without consequences

Practical moves I’d focus on:

Shop micro-markets, not headlines. A condo in one pocket of the core can behave very differently than a condo two neighbourhoods over - or the Toronto trend you’re seeing on CBC.
Move fast only when the home is truly right. Calm does not mean slow. It means you can be decisive for good reasons instead of panic.

If you’re sorting out process, timing, financing, and due diligence, I laid it out in plain English in my Buyers Guide, with specific resources for first time buyers, downsizers, and https://isellvictoria.ca/move-up-growing-families.html

What this means if you’re selling

If you’re selling, the bar is simply higher than it was in the early 2020s.

You gain:

More predictable buyer behaviour
Fewer chaotic offer nights (in most cases)
A clearer sense of what “the market” will reward

You give up:

The ability to price on nostalgia
The hope that demand will override condition

Practical moves I’d focus on:

Price for today, not last year. Especially in segments where inventory has built up.
Presentation matters more in a choice-rich market. Clean, bright, and well-maintained is not “nice to have”. It’s leverage.
Plan for negotiation. Not because you’re weak, but because buyers have alternatives.

This isn’t right for everyone, but it’s especially important for sellers who are “testing the market.” When inventory is higher, testing can turn into sitting.

If you’re thinking about selling, I put together a straightforward Sellers Guide so you can plan without guessing.

The bigger backdrop: rates, confidence, and outside noise

VREB mentioned the mix of interest rates, global trade tensions, and consumer confidence as the kinds of external factors that can steer the year.

That’s a fair summary of where we are. Rates have been more stable lately, but stability doesn’t automatically create urgency. It creates predictability. Predictability helps people make decisions, but it doesn’t force them to.

Provincial and national outlooks I’ve read recently are broadly in the same neighbourhood: a slow return toward more normal conditions, not a dramatic surge. That usually translates in Victoria to a market that rewards realistic pricing, good homes, and clear strategy.

My take

More selection. Less rushing. More defined outcomes.

That’s healthy. It’s also a market where the gap widens between homes that are positioned well and homes that aren’t. If you’re buying, you can be thoughtful. If you’re selling, you need to be intentional.

If you’re weighing a move this spring, I’m always happy to talk it through. No pressure. Just a straight conversation about options and trade-offs.

About Bil Greene:

Bil Greene is a Victoria realtor since 2006. He helps buyers and sellers across Greater Victoria make clear decisions without hype or pressure.

Sources

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25%. Why Mortgage Rates Still Feel “Sticky” in 2026

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 02:16:17 GMT

January 28, 2026

The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25% this morning. No surprise there. The surprise, if you can call it that, is how clearly the Bank Bank of Canada is saying: the rate might be steady, but the world around it is not.

If you are a buyer, a seller, or you have a mortgage renewal coming up, here is what you will understand by the end of this post:

Why the Bank stayed put today
Why fixed mortgage rates can stay elevated even when the overnight rate does not move
What this likely means for Greater Victoria decisions over the next few months

What the Bank of Canada actually said

The Bank’s statement reads like a checklist of “steady, but fragile.”

Growth is expected to be modest: the Bank projects 1.1% growth in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
Inflation is close to target: December CPI inflation came in at 2.4%, and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to 2% over the horizon.
The labour market is still soft: unemployment is 6.8%.
Trade uncertainty is the cloud over everything: US tariffs and an upcoming Canada–US–Mexico Agreement review are singled out as major risks.

They also note global conditions are “accommodative overall,” the Canadian dollar has been pushed above 72 cents with recent US dollar weakness, and global growth is expected to average about 3%.

Bottom line: the BoC thinks the current rate is “appropriate,” but they are keeping both hands on the wheel.

What BCREA has to say (and why it matters for mortgages)

The BCREA commentary hits a point I see people miss all the time - The overnight rate is not the whole story for mortgage pricing.

BCREA’s angle is basically this:

The data late in 2025 came in a bit stronger than expected, which pushed market expectations toward a possible 2026 hike.
But the headwinds (trade restrictions, uncertainty, global volatility) make actual tightening unlikely.
Even if the Bank stays on hold, mortgage rates can remain elevated relative to the overnight rate because investors demand a bigger risk premium in medium and long-term yields - which sounds technical, the real-life translation is simple:

You can have a steady central bank rate and still have lenders price mortgages cautiously, especially on the fixed-rate side.

BCREA has also been pretty direct in their broader materials that variable rates have already come down with prior cuts, but that without more cuts, the road ahead is more “hold and wait” than “cheaper borrowing.”

What other economists are saying today

The dominant theme from economists and market watchers is uncertainty management.

Reuters reported that Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized how hard it is to forecast the next move in an environment shaped by trade tension and geopolitical risk. In that same coverage, Doug Porter (BMO) framed the Bank as looking “comfortable” where it is, while Andrew Kelvin (TD Securities) highlighted the increased focus on uncertainty, particularly tied to the US and trade files.

This all lines up with what a lot of forecasters have been leaning toward going into this decision: a prolonged pause as the base case.

What this means for mortgages in plain English

Variable-rate mortgages

Variable rates are still the ones most directly linked to the Bank of Canada’s moves through prime.

So a hold usually means:

No immediate change to what variable-rate borrowers are paying.
No sudden new affordability shock.

But lenders can still adjust pricing at the margins. Not usually dramatic, but worth watching if you are rate shopping or your renewal date is coming up.

Fixed-rate mortgages

Fixed rates are more tied to bond yields and market expectations about risk and inflation.

So even with the overnight rate flat:

Fixed rates can stay stagnant or move up/down based on bond markets, not the Bank’s announcement headline.

This is exactly where the BCREA “risk premium” point matters. If markets are jittery about trade, inflation persistence, or global volatility, long-term borrowing costs can stay higher than people expect.

If you want to see what today’s rates mean for your monthly payment, my payments and affordability tools can help.

What it means for buyers in Greater Victoria

If you're a buyer right now and you feel like the math keeps shifting even though the rate didn't change, you're not imagining it. Fixed rates don't follow the Bank of Canada in a straight line, and that disconnect is frustrating when you're trying to lock down a budget. The good news is that stability, even imperfect stability, makes planning possible.

A steady rate environment gives you something valuable: you can stop guessing. Your pre-approval and budgeting feel less like moving targets. You can spend more energy on the home itself (location, layout, strata docs, sunlight, parking, future flexibility) instead of obsessing over whether rates will spike next month.

The trade-off is that if fixed rates remain sticky, some buyers will still feel payment pressure. That tends to keep the market more selective. Well-priced, well-presented homes will get action. Homes that feel overpriced or require too much imagination will sit.

If you're buying this spring, I would think in terms of preparedness over prediction. Be clear on your payment comfort zone before you start looking. Keep your financing options open (term length, fixed vs variable, portable features) so you're not locked into one scenario. And have a realistic Plan B if the perfect home shows up before the perfect rate does. Sometimes the right house at 4.5% beats waiting six months for 4.2% and losing the house you actually wanted.

Ready to move forward? I keep my Buying Guide updated with clear steps for first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and downsizers, step by step, no jargon..

What it means for sellers

For sellers, rate stability helps, but it does not do the selling for you.

A steady policy rate:

reduces the risk of buyers suddenly disappearing due to a surprise hike,
it does not guarantee urgency.

In a market like Greater Victoria, where buyers can be picky even in good years, the fundamentals keep winning:

sharp pricing,
clean presentation,
clear positioning (who is this home for, and why will they choose it).

If fixed rates stay elevated, buyers tend to scrutinize value harder. The homes that feel “easy to say yes to” are the ones that move.

If you’re thinking about selling this year, the first step is getting a realistic value range based on today’s market.

My overall take

Today’s decision feels like the Bank saying: we are on pause, but we are not relaxed.

BCREA’s framing is what I think homeowners and buyers should keep in mind: even if the Bank holds all year, mortgage rates do not have to drift down in a neat, friendly line. Markets can price in uncertainty, and lenders follow.

The next scheduled rate announcement is March 18, 2026.

Sources:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/12/fad-press-release-2025-12-10
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/market-recovery-continues-at-an-uneven-pace-across-bc/
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/view-bank-canada-holds-benchmark-interest-rate-225-2026-01-28/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-canada-stands-pat-on-rates-warns-of-heightened-uncertainty-b2fae2b2
https://www.benefitsandpensionsmonitor.com/news/industry-news/bank-of-canada-stands-still-while-trade-politics-move-the-goalposts/

Inventory Is Up. Why Does Victoria Still Feel Tight?

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 21:06:00 GMT

People keep saying a version of the same thing lately:
“Inventory is up. Prices should come down.”

On the surface, that logic makes sense. More listings usually means more choice, more negotiating room, and fewer situations where buyers feel like they have to sprint.

But in Greater Victoria, inventory is a blunt measure. It tells you how many homes are for sale. It does not tell you whether those homes are priced to move, whether they fit what buyers actually want, or whether sellers feel any urgency. That’s why I think BCREA’s latest Market Intelligence piece is useful, not because it predicts next month, but because it explains what happens when the new-build pipeline stays thin.

The BCREA piece is worth reading because it points to a bigger risk than this month’s sales numbers. When new construction slows for too long, the pipeline thins, and the next demand cycle can run into the same supply wall again.

I agree with the mechanism. Where it gets tricky is assuming the same signals mean the same thing everywhere in BC. Victoria has a few structural quirks that can make “inventory is up” feel very different on the ground.

If you want to see what “inventory” looks like right now: Search Victoria homes

What BCREA is warning about

In plain terms, BCREA is arguing that today’s weaker conditions risk repeating a familiar pattern: slowdowns reduce housing starts, the pipeline shrinks, and affordability can deteriorate later when demand returns.

That’s the provincial view. Here’s the Victoria-specific catch.

Why sellers can wait in Victoria

A big part of how inventory “fixes” a market is seller pressure. When listings pile up, sellers compete harder, pricing adjusts, and buyers gain ground.

In Victoria, many owners have meaningful equity. Some have low mortgages, or none at all. When those sellers list, they are often testing the market, not being forced into it.

So you can see more listings without seeing the kind of rapid price discovery people expect. Homes sit. Negotiations get calmer. The market slows. But the floor does not always drop out, because the must-sell group can be smaller.

Inventory exists. Urgency often does not.

Why some inventory doesn’t help buyers

Another reason inventory can mislead here is simple: a lot of what’s for sale isn’t what most buyers are looking for. In Victoria, that often shows up as buyers paying closer attention to strata fees, contingency funds, and whether a home actually works for daily life.

A lot of the inventory tends to concentrate in narrow pockets, like:

condos with high monthly carrying costs (strata fees, special assessment/depreciation report concerns)
layouts that work better as rentals than long-term living
price points that fit a different rate environment

When buyers re-enter the market, they do not absorb inventory evenly. They focus on the homes that fit real life:

functional layouts
locations that fit daily routines
monthly costs that feel manageable
flexibility for kids, work-from-home, aging parents, or future downsizing

That is how you can have “more listings” and still have competition for the right properties. More listings can be real, and the market can still feel tight, because the useful inventory is concentrated in fewer homes.

Why supply still feels tight in Victoria

Greater Victoria does not have a fast supply response. Geography, approvals, labour, and neighbourhood-level friction limit how quickly new housing can come online.

So when construction slows, the impact is not always immediate. It shows up later as fewer good options and tighter selection when demand improves. That lines up with BCREA’s broader warning about the pipeline.

This is not a forecast. It’s just how constrained markets tend to behave.

What I’d take from this if you’re buying or selling

If you’re a buyer:
Inventory may give you more choice, but leverage depends on the segment. Some listings will sit. Others will sell quickly because they are the ones buyers actually want.

First time buyer? First-time buyer guide

If you’re a seller:
A slower market is not a reason to panic if you do not need to move. But pricing still matters. The homes that sell well are the ones that feel like good value, not the ones that feel like a negotiation starting point.

Thinking about downsizing, but not rushing it? Downsizer guide

If you’re watching from the sidelines:
In Victoria, a quiet market is not the same as a weak market. Often it’s cautious. The tempo changes before the headline prices do.

The takeaway for Victoria buyers and sellers

BCREA is right to focus attention on supply and the construction pipeline. My only pushback is on the shortcut conclusion some people make when they see inventory rise.

In Victoria BC real estate, inventory is not the full story.
Choice, monthly carrying costs, and seller motivation usually matter more than the raw count.

If you’re weighing a move this year, I’m happy to talk it through with you. No pressure. Just options.

Source: BCREA Market Intelligence, “Déjà Vu: BC Housing Market Risks Repeating the 2010s.”

2025: The Year of Breathing Room

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 22:38:35 GMT

Victoria real estate in 2025: steady prices, selective buyers, and a market that rewarded realistic pricing. What it means for buyers and sellers in 2026.

The 2026 BC Assessment Is Out. Here’s What It All Means For You

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 20:33:43 GMT

Your 2026 BC Assessment is a snapshot from July 2025, not a verdict. How it affects taxes, when to question it, what Victoria homeowners should know.

BoC Holds Rates. What It Means for Greater Victoria Buyers and Sellers

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 20:40:27 GMT

Bank of Canada holds steady at 2.25%. What the pause means for Victoria buyers, sellers, and mortgage renewals heading into 2026.

Victoria’s Market in November. A Slower Pace and a Clearer Picture for 2026

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 20:29:39 GMT

November sales down 18%, inventory up 11%. What Victoria's balanced market means for buyers and sellers heading into 2026. VREB stats and local insight.