November’s numbers from the Victoria Real Estate Board confirmed what most of us have been sensing. The market has shifted into a slower, more balanced gear.
Sales have cooled, not crashed
VREB reported 451 sales in November. That is about 18% fewer than last year and roughly 27% below October. Condos felt the slowdown most sharply, with 119 sales, close to a one third drop year over year. Single family homes were down about 8%, with 241 sales across the region.
In plain language, buyers have choices again. The urgent, offer tonight or lose it energy of the early 2020s has largely faded.
Inventory is up and buyers can breathe again
We ended November with 3,152 active listings. That is almost 8% fewer than October, but 11% more than a year ago. More inventory than last year, paired with fewer sales this month, is classic balanced market territory. Well priced and well presented homes are still selling, but both sides have more time to think and negotiate.
Prices. Detached easing, condos edging up
Using the MLS Home Price Index:
The benchmark single family home in the Victoria Core sat at $1,276,700. That is down about 2.8% from last November and slightly below October.
The benchmark condo in the Victoria Core reached $553,100. That is roughly 2% higher than a year ago and modestly up from October.
Detached prices have eased from their peak. Condos are proving more resilient, shaped by affordability pressures and steady demand from first time buyers and downsizers.
How this lines up with the 2026 outlook
National and provincial forecasts point in a similar direction.
CMHC expects a gradual recovery in 2026 as conditions stabilize and rates moderate.
CREA based forecasts point to a small price decline through 2025 and a modest national increase of about 3% in 2026.
BC focused outlooks call for softer sales in 2025 and an upswing in 2026 as buyers adjust to today’s interest rate environment.
For Greater Victoria, this likely means balanced conditions rather than a runaway seller’s market. Prices that move sideways to slightly higher. Strength in pockets where supply is tight. Ongoing affordability pressure, especially for younger buyers.
If you are buying in 2026
Buyers will find more inventory than we have seen in years. Less competition. More time for due diligence. You can focus on fit. Neighbourhood, layout, long term needs. The trade off is that rates remain higher than in the 2015 to 2020 era, so careful budgeting matters.
If you are selling in 2026
The bar is simply higher. Buyers have options, so pricing must be strategic, not nostalgic. Clean presentation and thoughtful prep still make a measurable difference. Realistic expectations matter. The goal is to be one of the next homes to sell, not another listing sitting in the queue. Well positioned homes continue to achieve solid prices. The any condition, any price days are behind us for now.
My take from the ground
This patient but active market is healthier for everyone. Buyers can think clearly. Sellers who prepare are rewarded. The gap between list price and true value is narrowing. If you are wondering whether to upsize, downsize, or shift within Greater Victoria in 2026, the answer is rarely a simple yes or no. It comes down to timing, product, and financing.
Let’s talk about your 2026 move
If you’d like a data driven look at what your current home could realistically sell for in this market, or which neighbourhoods fit your budget and lifestyle for a 2026 purchase, reach out any time. I am happy to walk you through the numbers, not just the headlines.
