People keep saying a version of the same thing lately:
“Inventory is up. Prices should come down.”
On the surface, that logic makes sense. More listings usually means more choice, more negotiating room, and fewer situations where buyers feel like they have to sprint.
But in Greater Victoria, inventory is a blunt measure. It tells you how many homes are for sale. It does not tell you whether those homes are priced to move, whether they fit what buyers actually want, or whether sellers feel any urgency. That’s why I think BCREA’s latest Market Intelligence piece is useful, not because it predicts next month, but because it explains what happens when the new-build pipeline stays thin.
The BCREA piece is worth reading because it points to a bigger risk than this month’s sales numbers. When new construction slows for too long, the pipeline thins, and the next demand cycle can run into the same supply wall again.
I agree with the mechanism. Where it gets tricky is assuming the same signals mean the same thing everywhere in BC. Victoria has a few structural quirks that can make “inventory is up” feel very different on the ground.
If you want to see what “inventory” looks like right now: Search Victoria homes
What BCREA is warning about
In plain terms, BCREA is arguing that today’s weaker conditions risk repeating a familiar pattern: slowdowns reduce housing starts, the pipeline shrinks, and affordability can deteriorate later when demand returns.
That’s the provincial view. Here’s the Victoria-specific catch.
Why sellers can wait in Victoria
A big part of how inventory “fixes” a market is seller pressure. When listings pile up, sellers compete harder, pricing adjusts, and buyers gain ground.
In Victoria, many owners have meaningful equity. Some have low mortgages, or none at all. When those sellers list, they are often testing the market, not being forced into it.
So you can see more listings without seeing the kind of rapid price discovery people expect. Homes sit. Negotiations get calmer. The market slows. But the floor does not always drop out, because the must-sell group can be smaller.
Inventory exists. Urgency often does not.
Why some inventory doesn’t help buyers
Another reason inventory can mislead here is simple: a lot of what’s for sale isn’t what most buyers are looking for. In Victoria, that often shows up as buyers paying closer attention to strata fees, contingency funds, and whether a home actually works for daily life.
A lot of the inventory tends to concentrate in narrow pockets, like:
condos with high monthly carrying costs (strata fees, special assessment/depreciation report concerns)
layouts that work better as rentals than long-term living
price points that fit a different rate environment
When buyers re-enter the market, they do not absorb inventory evenly. They focus on the homes that fit real life:
functional layouts
locations that fit daily routines
monthly costs that feel manageable
flexibility for kids, work-from-home, aging parents, or future downsizing
That is how you can have “more listings” and still have competition for the right properties. More listings can be real, and the market can still feel tight, because the useful inventory is concentrated in fewer homes.
Why supply still feels tight in Victoria
Greater Victoria does not have a fast supply response. Geography, approvals, labour, and neighbourhood-level friction limit how quickly new housing can come online.
So when construction slows, the impact is not always immediate. It shows up later as fewer good options and tighter selection when demand improves. That lines up with BCREA’s broader warning about the pipeline.
This is not a forecast. It’s just how constrained markets tend to behave.
What I’d take from this if you’re buying or selling
If you’re a buyer:
Inventory may give you more choice, but leverage depends on the segment. Some listings will sit. Others will sell quickly because they are the ones buyers actually want.
First time buyer? First-time buyer guide
If you’re a seller:
A slower market is not a reason to panic if you do not need to move. But pricing still matters. The homes that sell well are the ones that feel like good value, not the ones that feel like a negotiation starting point.
Thinking about downsizing, but not rushing it? Downsizer guide
If you’re watching from the sidelines:
In Victoria, a quiet market is not the same as a weak market. Often it’s cautious. The tempo changes before the headline prices do.
The takeaway for Victoria buyers and sellers
BCREA is right to focus attention on supply and the construction pipeline. My only pushback is on the shortcut conclusion some people make when they see inventory rise.
In Victoria BC real estate, inventory is not the full story.
Choice, monthly carrying costs, and seller motivation usually matter more than the raw count.
If you’re weighing a move this year, I’m happy to talk it through with you. No pressure. Just options.
Source: BCREA Market Intelligence, “Déjà Vu: BC Housing Market Risks Repeating the 2010s.”
